Insight with a Smile
Our verifiable proof: The results of this method are proven and documented by a research study that was published in the Journal of Wealth Management. You can download the study from us or from Social Science Research Network.
The chart below shows the historical annual returns of the Pro-Folio Basic method as compared to the same portfolio "Buy-and-Hold" -- that is, without market-timing, as documented in the research paper. Please note that these are the returns of the market indexes, before any fees or commissions are deducted. With ETF fees and commissions included, your performance will be lower. Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and your portfolio may lose value.
Summary over 1973-2008
| Buy & Hold | Pro-Folio | Difference | |
| Avg Return | 9.77% | 11.27% | +1.50% |
| Volatility | 9.73% | 6.87% | |
| Max Drawdown | -35.98% | -9.53% | |
| Best Year | 26.58% | 26.20% | |
| Worst Year | -30.09% | -0.59% |
Yearly Returns Comparison
| Year | Buy & Hold | Pro-Folio | Difference | |||
| 1973 | 1.03% | 7.39% | 6.36% | |||
| 1974 | -11.80% | 12.07% | 23.87% | |||
| 1975 | 20.16% | 1.46% | -18.70% | |||
| 1976 | 15.04% | 16.01% | 0.97% | |||
| 1977 | 8.24% | 7.20% | -1.04% | |||
| 1978 | 13.65% | 11.88% | -1.77% | |||
| 1979 | 17.89% | 14.65% | -3.24% | |||
| 1980 | 18.95% | 12.91% | -6.04% | |||
| 1981 | -3.34% | 4.80% | 8.14% | |||
| 1982 | 21.34% | 22.06% | 0.72% | |||
| 1983 | 17.97% | 15.77% | -2.20% | |||
| 1984 | 9.43% | 6.98% | -2.45% | |||
| 1985 | 26.58% | 26.20% | -0.38% | |||
| 1986 | 25.50% | 21.54% | -3.96% | |||
| 1987 | 8.53% | 11.63% | 3.10% | |||
| 1988 | 18.46% | 11.74% | -6.72% | |||
| 1989 | 19.25% | 18.12% | -1.13% | |||
| 1990 | -1.10% | 4.94% | 6.04% | |||
| 1991 | 18.19% | 6.34% | -11.85% | |||
| 1992 | 3.88% | 4.72% | 0.84% | |||
| 1993 | 11.90% | 12.82% | 0.92% | |||
| 1994 | 1.76% | 2.43% | 0.67% | |||
| 1995 | 22.75% | 21.74% | -1.01% | |||
| 1996 | 19.31% | 19.25% | -0.06% | |||
| 1997 | 9.96% | 9.94% | -0.02% | |||
| 1998 | -0.49% | 7.38% | 7.87% | |||
| 1999 | 14.16% | 13.05% | -1.11% | |||
| 2000 | 12.73% | 13.78% | 1.05% | |||
| 2001 | -9.74% | 3.21% | 12.95% | |||
| 2002 | 2.09% | 3.39% | 1.30% | |||
| 2003 | 25.70% | 20.53% | -5.17% | |||
| 2004 | 17.44% | 15.06% | -2.38% | |||
| 2005 | 11.74% | 8.20% | -3.54% | |||
| 2006 | 12.07% | 14.16% | 2.09% | |||
| 2007 | 7.87% | 9.49% | 1.62% | |||
| 2008 | -30.09% | -0.59% | 29.50% | |||
| Avg Return | 9.77% | 11.27% | 1.50% | |||
| Volatility | 9.73% | 6.87% | ||||
| Max Drawdown | -35.98% | -9.53% | ||||
| Best Year | 26.58% | 26.20% | ||||
| Worst Year | -30.09% | -0.59% | ||||
| Source: Mebane T. Faber, "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" | ||||||